Bookmaker Information

Sports Betting

Football4Profit: Online Bookmakers

One of the things that should take utter precedence when looking into online bookmakers and where you’ll want to take your business, is the fairness in the rates you’re getting. Basically, in order to maximize your own profits, rather than needlessly sending cash into the bookies’ pockets, you’ll want to make sure you find bookmakers with the fairest odds, or the odds that are closest to being true. The question is how does a punter go about doing that? Considering the advantage that the overround gives the bookmakers, it’s hardly a shock to learn that more than 90% of players lose over the long run in fixed odd sports betting. It’s a punters responsibility to filter through the big, bad firm and find those that support true odds- rather than taking those true odds prices and altering them sufficiently to guarantee themselves a hefty profit.

One of the largest issues comes in the difference between online sports betting and other forms of gambling: such as casino card games. Roulette, craps, BlackJack, even Poker- the odds that come from standard odds- it’s absolutely quantifiable the probability of a pair of 6s coming up in BlackJack, or the chances you’ll roll an 11 in Craps. I know that on a Roulette table, I have a one in 37 chance of getting the number 16 I bet on. The trouble comes with sports betting in that- how can I figure out the true odds on whether Maria Sharapova is going to win the U.S. Open? And even if I can pick probability that I think might be close, how can I be sure that my guess is as accurate as or more so than the bookies’?
Unfortunately, there is no easy way to acquire such knowledge; there exists no formula to type stats into and come out with some magical guaranteed number- though certainly you can do plenty of research, and utilize popular odds calculators. In the end, though, the closest guarantee you’re going to get to ensuring that you get good probability from your bookmakers is to o the calculations yourself and use tools like experience, a long-time knowledge of your sports of choice, and its betting market. It’s of a huge advantage to know how bookmakers come to their odds to put you in mind with them. This may all seem daunting but it does come with a silver lining: that bookmakers, like the punters on the other side of the table, are humans who make mistakes as well. It’s to your great advantage then, to know your odds and probability so that you can take advantage of the occasions when errors are made- subtle or glaring, and be among the wiser punters to pick up quickly opportunities for sports betting.

One example of a huge error- so huge in fact, that after the episode, the bookmaker stopped offering the sport event from thereout- was for the 2002/2003 World Cup in ski jumping. William Hill offered an incredible 200/1 on Primoz Peterka to win in Finland, despite his having been the double world champion in previous seasons, and even winning the previous day’s qualifying competition. The true odds were closer to 10/1 and of course Peterka won. Other bookies had priced similar to true odds, so William ill was alone in the devastating mistake and hasn’t offered the event since. Tremendous errors like this are far rarer than more subtle ones, but they do exist. It’s to your advantage to be able to recognize them immediately.

There are a number of means by which you can glean your sports betting expertise. It depends on the punter’s preference which route they go: some like to pore over Internet journals and blogs, finding tidbits of information. Others use a more mathematical approach chopping up past performance numbers in order to predict the future. Some like to take into account outside forces, team morale, politics, even the weather. Some of the more reckless, or perhaps naïve, will make decisions based on “feelings,” or “hunches.” (For example, horse names often have influences on bets.) And still others subscribe to services to do their thinking for them- pay a fee, and send the cash, and pray for a return.

In the end, you want to utilize the method that feels good to you, and your wallet. You want a return. The methods mentioned all should keep at least one thing in common: finding the value in the odds. That is, looking at the odds that the bookmakers are offering, and distinguishing whether they are true enough to the real odds, or identifying perhaps an error that you will be able to profit from. Many players will simply bet on the team who wins the most, rather than looking at the odds offered for the chances of winning. No matter how much a punter thinks a winning team will always win, it cannot be true. They should, instead, be looking at the possibility that there is a differentiation of the chances the bookie has proclaims, versus the true chances. If there is, then the punter has found betting value, a sure means to identify potential wins.

Typically speaking, the value bettor will not be concerned with backing the underdog, even if they think the obvious winner will pull through. It becomes a game of mathematics, a balance of potential wins against potential losses in the case where there is a break from the true odds. Odds, in the end, are probabilities- a means to measure the likelihood of an outcome. Value betting offers to punters a way to identify weaknesses in the game of odds against the bookmakers and, not surprisingly, knowledge is of the essence. Even if a punter were to choose the winner every time, and “win” every bet, depending on the prices, he may not even “win” enough to honestly constitute a profit. Successful punters are those who not only bet the winning bets, but who find the edge against the bookies to gain the upper hand. It takes number crunching to win a numbers game. Is it easy? No, in the end- value betting relies a lot on hypothesis. You want to not only win your choice wagers, but to do so in cases where (hopefully) the bookmaker has under or overestimated, and take his projected profits back in the form of your win. To do so is entirely in determining the true odds of your loved games. Luck, hopefully, will play hand in hand with your strategy. A final quote from Successful Football Betting, authored by Geoff Harvey, “Find the value, the winners will take care of themselves.”

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